First order of business, getting a coveted John Muir Trail permit!
With the JMT consistently gaining popularity over the years, there are more people applying for permits than ever! So, what are your chances? Let's look at the stats.
At Mt. Whitney, the southern terminus, last year saw a 11% success rate for overnight permits (which are necessary for continuing onto the John Muir Trail).
In Yosemite National Park, the northern terminus, the stats are a little brighter, with about a 1 in 4 chance of an individual application being successful.
While 25% might not seem like terrible odds, I doubt it's one you'd like to bet on. At least not a requesting weeks off of work, investing in quality gear, and announcing your upcoming adventure at Christmas dinner kind of bet.
However, math can be on your side! And not some college-level statistics kind of math, more like 2nd semester of 8th grade kind of math. Simple probability. Don't worry, I'll walk you through it.
So, you only need one permit. (This math problem will be much more satisfying if you can find some flexibility in your hiking dates.) That means you can start at Mt. Whitney or Yosemite. You're open to starting the first week of July or the second.
Let's look at this particular scenario. So, if you remember back to 8th grade (block out that rejection at the dance, or the state of your skin), back to the rules of probability.
If you were dealing with one scenario's probability OR another scenario's probability, you added them to each other to find the probability that at least one of them would happen. Stay with me here.
If you were dealing with one scenario's probability OR another scenario's probability, you added them to each other to find the probability that at least one of them would happen. Stay with me here.
If you applied for a Whitney over night permit (11%),
and you submitted a lottery application for July 2-8 start dates (25%),
AND you submitted a lottery application for July 9-15 start dates (25%),
your odds for being successful in just one of these applications would be
11% + 25% + 25% = 61%
Now those are odds you might bet on! And depending on your flexibility, you can skew those odds even more in you favor.
Now, a word of caution, luck (and unluckiness), care nothing for your math problems and probability.
Even though a coin may flip heads or tails, if you call heads there is nothing stopping it from landing tails time and time again.
Beyond applying for multiple permits and dates, be in the know about the dates & times that unclaimed permits are released.
All these dates are listed on the One Stop Trail Shop JMT permits page.
Or, to make sure you don't miss a single opportunity, get the JMT permit calendar and integrate it into your own.
All these dates are listed on the One Stop Trail Shop JMT permits page.
Or, to make sure you don't miss a single opportunity, get the JMT permit calendar and integrate it into your own.
Let me take a step back and recognize that fact that this is, a lot. No doubt you've been thinking about more fun things like what color backpack you will get, and the beautiful pictures of lakes and mountains that probably inspired you to do this in the first place.
This whole permit and probability talk is a big time buzz kill. But if you've made it this far, you're committed to making this thing happen. And you totally can.
Thankfully, I have made a tool to help you in this process. Yay!
Thankfully, I have made a tool to help you in this process. Yay!
The One Stop Trail Shop How to get a JMT Permit - "Class of 2023 Edition" is free and consolidates all this information in a simple and organized way. Download it here.
Plus, it includes a printable Permit Plan Worksheet to get your plans squared away and ready to go.
So, take the first brave step on this JMT journey of yours, and get to making that permit plan!
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